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Looks Like Someone Has a Sixpack of the Mondays We don’t duck reality here at Hogs Haven. As we inch closer to the beginning of the 2018 season Authentic Paul Richardson Jersey , we also inch closer to what at least feels a little like that monster at the end of the book that Grover has been warning me about for decades. For Jay Gruden and the Washington Redskins, the monster has been at the beginning of the book. At 0-4 in season openers under Jay, the Redskins have been losing to that monster. Granted, two of those seasons saw winning records (you know how I feel about ties), but getting off to an 0-1 start four straight years can’t be the best way to go about it. As I name my “pivotal moment of the 2018 schedule” (patent pending), I just can’t help but think it is coming sooner this year than I have typically seen it.My goal today is to introduce a few topics that we can get some discussion around and take to the show tomorrow night in the basement. It is somewhat foolish to even wonder if winning the opener is really that big of a deal—it is. When you only get sixteen chances to bring home a win, every one matters. On that front, here is a question that touches a topic we bring up every winter: when are the most important regular season games played? I think we can dispense with some of the more simplistic answers to this question—we know our schedule and we know (for the most part) the personnel we will face. Think of this in two parts: a) when do you most want be “hot?” and b) when do you most need to be “hot?” Maybe the answer is the same. (Also, this would be a great time to section off a three or four game stretch that you think is the most important one of the year.)This begs the question: what kind of team have the Redskins put together? We are clearly not returning champs looking to pick up where we left off after a big season. These kinds of teams are generally capable of collecting 10 or 11 wins regardless (irregardless, even) of whether or not they win the opener. You might even say these kinds of teams (think New England Patriots) are capable of “giving one away” and recovering well enough. No...the Redskins are not this kind of team. Washington can’t afford to give a single thing away (except second round picks, which are given out at Halloween instead of candy at Redskins Park).It probably bears mentioning that this conversation isn’t about when we would choose to lose a game. We would choose never. It isn’t about which games we would choose to win. We would choose them all. For the purpose of this conversation, try and imagine that the Redskins won’t be going undefeated this year. I know...difficult. The point is that the NFL season is a minefield that teams have to navigate. Some teams can survive hitting a mine early. Most can’t survive hitting one late. To the casual observer, it almost seems like the Redskins are actively seeking these mines every year and doing jumping jacks on top of them. Assuming for a moment that Jay Gruden has improved his minesweeping abilities, is this Redskins team built to survive early losses? I hope you were covering this sentence up as you were reading that last question, because—spoiler alert—the answer is NO. Jay Gruden and Alex Smith seem pretty damn happy together. The offensive line in burgundy and gold is going to prove they belong in the top third, if not the top five, of OL’s in this league. The defense is as young, hungry and talented as we have seen...ever during Dan Snyder’s stewardship. The skill positions on offense are stocked with talent and promise. The position coaches on the sideline are as good a group of coaches as we have seen since the Joe Gibbs staffs. I believe this group—as a whole—needs early validation. This is not even about proving to the fanbase or to other teams what they are all about. I think this Redskins team feels good about themselves right...this...very...second. That feeling has to be validated—for themsevles—with a win as soon as possible or we risk watching that feeling vanish like a fart in the wind. There are no recent memories of stellar Redskins play in games that matter that much for these players to call up. There is no break in this schedule for the players to look toward and rely on for a stretch of games where they will be favored...at least not the way it lays out currently. Everything that can be good about this season and beyond has to be manufactured out of the gate. Despite having recently watched a team crawl out of a 3-6 hole to finish 10-6 Youth Alex Smith Jersey , let’s all be real honest about being a successful comeback team in the NFL. It is one of the hardest things to do because there is generally a reason why you are losing, and that doesn’t typically change that fast in such a short season. When the good times aren’t rolling, something needs to happen to get the rolling started. That is why I am breaking with my trend over the last handful of years and saying that the Pivotal Game of the 2018 Season is the opener, on the road in Arizona. No, the Cardinals are not favorites to make it to the Super Bowl, but yes, they can give us everything we can handle. Jay Gruden has never been able to open a season and have some positivity blow through town from week one to week two. Given I have also called this “The Year of Jay Gruden,” let’s just say he needs this 2018 ride to open with a bang. I understand that the bulk of our divisional schedule is later in the season. I understand that you want to be peaking before the playoffs (if you are lucky enough to be in contention). I understand that history is littered with great September teams that turned out to be terrible December/January teams. I don’t care about any of this today. I am arguing that this Redskins team absolutely MUST win its opener, and that it will be a pivotal moment. In addition to being a road game in-conference, which checks two huge boxes in terms of “extra value” wins, getting off to a 1-0 start will allow these players to do something no Redskins team under Jay Gruden has ever done: look at each other in the locker room after week one thinking, “You know what...maybe we were right to be so confident in who we are. Maybe this year is different like we have been telling each other all summer.” You can argue it is a little lazy to call the “next” game the most important, but I’m also talking about doing something we have failed at doing for the last four years. If and when we break that trend, I do very much believe we will be witnessing a pivotal moment, because we will be combining confidence with talent on the front side of the grueling year. We can examine my record briefly on this tomorrow night...with what I expect will be some tough football talk from Kevin and T—let’s just say they aren’t bashful about stating...uhhhhh...opposing viewpoints. Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers2017 Record: 5-11 (4th, NFC South)2018 Record: 3-5 (4th, NFC South)Outlook: From a certain perspective, the Buccaneers had to feel like they were only a half-step away from being serious playoff contenders coming into 2018.Tampa Bay’s 5-11 record in 2017 included seven losses by six or fewer points.From another perspective http://www.authenticswashingtonredskins.com/cheap-mason-foster-jersey , this is the NFL.Everybody’s good.Everybody’s close.The margin between a mediocre team and a playoff team is razor thin, and narrow losses don’t mean squat.Any Redskins fan old enough to remember the Norv Turner Era knows that.And any Redskins fan old enough to remember the past seven days knows that the difference between a division title and a losing record can be a few key injuries.Anyway, the ‘17 Bucs were a top-ten team in terms of offensive yardage, but were dead last on the other side of the ball (although they were a far-less-bad 22nd in scoring defense).This year, the Bucs sit at #7 in scoring with a healthy 28.6 PPG mark.After returning Jameis Winston to his starting quarterback role following his suspension, Tampa has benched him and re-rediscovered Ryan Fitzpatrick.Fitzmagic boasts a splendid, sea-captain-esque beard to go along with his 112.9 passer rating.He has presided over some impressive offensive showings—showings that haven’t always translated into victories.Mike Evans and old friend DeSean Jackson are having strong years, with Evans on pace for over 1,500 receiving yards and Jackson averaging a scary 22.4 yards per catch.But the reason the Bucs haven’t been able to win most weeks owes to the numerous question marks on the defensive side of the ball.Gerald McCoy made the Pro Bowl last year and was one of the only bright spots.The always-formidable pass-rusher Jason Pierre-Paul has racked up eight sacks already.On the other hand, the Bucs used their first draft pick on defensive lineman Vita Vea, who has been, uh, underwhelming.Another of the few standouts for Tampa Bay in 2017 was young linebacker Kwon Alexander, but Tampa lost him for the season to a torn ACL.Starting safety Chris Conte wound up on IR after week three.In all, the Buccaneers are dead last in the NFL with an awful 275 points allowed.They’re on pace to give up 550 points.Granted, scoring is up around the league, but keep in mind that nobody in the NFC gave up even 400 points last season.How Worried Should We Be?: Terrified.Yes, there is a lot wrong with this Bucs team http://www.authenticswashingtonredskins.com/cheap-matthew-ioannidis-jersey , and they’re the worst of the bunch in the tough NFC South.But, especially on the road, there are so many unknowns about the Redskins right now that I think this is a matchup that has to be a little terrifying.After the disastrous game against the Falcons that saw three offensive starters lost for the season, including Brandon Scherff, who was having an All-Pro-caliber season, I need to see how this team responds before I feel confident about anything again.The Scherff injury in particular could do serious damage. The Redskins’ running game, which has been solid behind a resurgent Adrian Peterson, may suffer mightily without Scherff, Shawn Lauvao, and Trent Williams.For a team that has a mediocre passing attack, losing a lot of potency on the ground is obviously a major problem.The Bucs have a terrible defense, which will hopefully help Alex Smith and company find much better rhythm, but those defensive deficiencies don’t come close to assuring a Washington win.Let me put this another way to illustrate the problem the Redskins face on Sunday.The Buccaneers have scored at least 26 points in all but one of their games this year.The Redskins have failed to score more than 24 points in all but one of their games this year.The talented safety duo of D.J. Swearinger and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix will be crucial this week in limiting the Bucs’ deep passing attack.However, even if the defense holds Tampa Bay to an uncharacteristically low offensive output, the shorthanded Redskins’ offense will very likely need to do something it has failed to do 87.5% of the time this year in order for the Skins to win.I’m hoping for the best, and it’s not crazy at all to think the Redskins might come out on top, but the burden of proof is on Washington to show that it can overcome the latest rash of all-too-familiar hard-luck injuries.